Predicción de los efectos de la humedad ambiental sobre el desarrollo del COVID-19 en Medan, Indonesia

Autores/as

  • Tri Bayu Purnama Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Indonesia

Palabras clave:

COVID-19, humedad ambiental

Resumen

Objetivos: Este estudio pretende estimar el efecto de la humedad ambiental sobre el desarrollo del COVID-19 en Indonesia. Diseño: utilizó un estudio ecológico para investigar las series temporales de los parámetros ambientales y los datos del COVID-19. Se aplicó la prueba Spearman para determinar la correlación. Entorno: se llevó a cabo en Medan, Indonesia, que es la ciudad más grande de la parte occidental. Participantes: los casos de COVID-19 comportan el resultado de este estudio y se obtuvieron del departamento de salud de Medan. Se utilizaron como parámetros ambientales la temperatura, la humedad y la duración de la exposición al sol. Resultados: se detectó una correlación positiva entre la humedad y el COVID-19, respecto a la temperatura se encontró una correlación negativa. No hay diferencias significativas en los datos ambientales antes y después de la detección de la COVID-19 en Medan. Conclusiones: es necesario tomar en cuenta la tendencia de los parámetros ambientales y el COVID-19 para llevar a cabo una preparación de la estrategia de salud pública adecuada. 

Citas

Indonesian COVID-19 Task Force. Situation Report of COVID-19 in Indonesia. 2020.

Medan City Communication and Information Office. General Data Related to COVID-19 in Medan City. 2020;

Liu J, Zhou J, Yao J, Zhang X, Li L, Xu X, et al. Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China. Sci Total Environ. 2020;

Tosepu R, Gunawan J, Savitri D, Ode L, Imran A, Lestari H, et al. Correlation between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta , Indonesia. Sci Total Environ. 2020;725:1–4.

Bashir MF, Ma B, Bilal, Komal B, Bashir MA, Tan D, et al. Correlation between climate indicators and COVID-19 pandemic in New York, USA. Sci Total Environ. 2020;

Yuan J, Yun H, Lan W, Wang W, Sullivan SG, Jia S, et al. A climatologic investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China. Am J Infect Control. 2006;34(4):234–6.

Ma Y, Zhao Y, Liu J, He X, Wang B, Fu S, et al. Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Sci Total Environ. 2020;

Wang J, Tang K, Feng K, Lv W. High temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19. SSRN. 2020;2020:1–26.

Scholtissek C, Rott R. Effect of temperature on the multiplication of an Influenza virus. J Gen Virol. 1969;

Shi P, Dong Y, Yan H, Li X, Zhao C, Liu W, et al. The impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID-19 ) outbreak - evidence from China. medRxiv. 2020;(77).

Sajadi MM, Habibzadeh P, Vintzileos A, Miralles-wilhelm F, Amoroso A. Temperature, humidity, and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19. SSRN. 2020;2020:6–7.

Guo X-J, Zhang H, Zeng Y-P. Transmissibility of COVID-19 and its Association with Temperature and Humidity. Res Sq Prepr. 2020;1–10.

World Health Organization. Global Surveillance for human infection with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Interim Guid. 2020;(February):27–9.

BPS Statistics Indonesia. Kota Medan dalam Angka (Medan Profile in Number). 2018.

MOH. HK 01.07/MENKES/182/2020 tentang Jejaring Laboratorium Pemeriksaan Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19). 2020.

MOH. Pedoman Kesiapsiagaan Menghadapi Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Direkorat Jenderal Pencegah dan Pengendali Penyakit. 2020;1–88.

Indonesian Meteorology and Climatology. Data Online-Database Center, BMKG. 2020.

Lowen AC, Steel J. Roles of Humidity and Temperature in Shaping Influenza Seasonality. J Virol. 2014;

Jaakkola K, Saukkoriipi A, Jokelainen J, Juvonen R, Kauppila J, Vainio O, et al. Decline in temperature and humidity increases the occurrence of influenza in cold climate. Environ Heal A Glob Access Sci Source. 2014;

Shaw Stewart PD. Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections. Med Hypotheses. 2016;

Peci A, Winter AL, Li Y, Gnaneshan S, Liu J, Mubareka S, et al. Effects of absolute humidity, relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed on influenza activity in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2019;

Chew FT, Doraisingham S, Ling AE, Kumarasinghe G, Lee BW. Seasonal trends of viral respiratory tract infections in the tropics. Epidemiol Infect. 1998;

Sooryanarain H, Elankumaran S. Environmental Role in Influenza Virus Outbreaks. Annu Rev Anim Biosci. 2015;

Ujiie M, Tsuzuki S, Ohmagari N. Effect of temperature on the infectivity of COVID-19. Int J Infect Dis [Internet]. 2020 Apr 30;S1201-9712(20)30284-8. Available from: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32360939

Shaman J, Kohn M. Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009;

Quilodran CS, Currat M, Montoya-Burgos JI. Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality. medRxiv. 2020;

Gupta S, Raghuwanshi GS, Chanda A. Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the US: A prediction model for India in 2020. Sci Total Environ. 2020;

Ahmadi M, Sharifi A, Dorosti S, Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi S, Ghanbari N. Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran. Sci Total Environ. 2020;

Zhang K, Li Y, Schwartz JD, O’Neill MS. What weather variables are important in predicting heat-related mortality? A new application of statistical learning methods. Environ Res. 2014;

Sobsey M, Meschke J. Virus survival in the environment with special attention to survival in sewage droplets and other environmental media of fecal or respiratory origin. Geneva; 2003.

Yang W, Marr LC. Mechanisms by Which Ambient Humidity May Affect Viruses in Aerosols AND VIABILITY. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2012;78(19):6781–8.

Kudo E, Song E, Yockey LJ, Rakib T, Wong PW, Homer RJ. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. PNAS. 2019;116(22):10905–10.

Paynter S. Humidity and respiratory virus transmission in tropical and temperate settings. Epidemiol Infect. 2020;143(May):1110–8.

Yang W, Elankumaran S, Marr L. Relationship between humidity and influenzaAviability in droplets and implications for influenza’s seasonality. PLoS One. 2012;7(e46789).

Oozawa H, Kimura H, Noda T, Hamada K. Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity. Auris Nasus Larynx. 2012;39(1):48–52.

Xie X, Li Y, Chwang ATY, Ho PL, Seto WH. How far droplets can move in indoor environments-revisiting the Wells evaporation–falling curve. Indoor Air. 2007;17(3):211–225.

Yang W, Marr LC. Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PLoS One. 2011;6(1):e21481.

Lopez GU, Gerba CP, Tamimi AH, Kitajima M, Maxwell SL, Rose JB. Transfer efficiency of bacteria and viruses from porous and nonporous fomites to fingers under different relative humidity conditions. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2013;79(18):5728–34.

Posada J, Redrow J, Celik I. A mathematical model for predicting the viability of airborne viruses. J Virol Methods. 2010;164(1):88 –95.

Shaman J, Pitzer V, Viboud C, Grenfell B, M L. Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol. 2010;8(e1000316).

Shek L, Lee B. Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory tract virus infections in the tropics. Paediatr Respir Rev. 2003;4(1):105–111.

Moura F, Perdigão A, Siqueira M. Seasonality of influenza in the tropics: A distinct pattern in northeastern Brazil. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2009;81(1):180–183.

Publicado

2021-08-09

Número

Sección

Investigación Original